Can a Leaner Luka Dončić Finally Win NBA MVP? Breaking Down the Numbers and the Narrative

For years, Luka Dončić has been one of the NBA’s most dominant forces—even when carrying extra weight. Critics often targeted his conditioning, but the numbers tell a different story.

In the 2023-24 season, Dončić averaged a jaw-dropping 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game while finishing third in MVP voting. Even during his “heavier” years, Dončić was a lock for All-NBA First Team and consistently among the league leaders in advanced metrics like usage rate, box plus-minus, and offensive win shares.

However, the concern wasn’t just aesthetics — it was sustainability:

He’s played 70+ games only twice in his first seven NBA seasons.

There were questions about his defensive effort, especially in transition and lateral quickness.

And in high-leverage playoff moments, fatigue occasionally seemed to catch up, even as he carried Dallas to the 2024 NBA Finals.

Despite all that, Luka still produced like a generational talent. So the real question heading into 2025-26 isn’t can Dončić perform? It’s what happens when he’s in the best shape of his life?

The New Luka Dončić: Body Transformation, New Team, MVP Trajectory

Now in his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers, Dončić enters the 2025-26 season with a completely reshaped body and a fully reloaded mindset.

After suffering a Christmas Day calf injury and playing just 50 games in 2024-25, he told Men’s Health that he was motivated to transform his physique — and it shows. With a noticeable cut in body fat and a leaner frame, Dončić may be unlocking another level of his game:

Key Benefits of Dončić’s Transformation:

  • Durability & Stamina: A lighter frame could mean fewer soft-tissue injuries and stronger late-season performance.
  • Defensive Mobility: Slimmer Luka may finally silence critics on defense, where his lateral movement has historically lagged.
  • Quickness & Athleticism: Though never a high-flier, Luka’s improved agility could lead to better drives, finishes, and close-outs.
  • Mental Sharpness: His offseason grind reflects a renewed mental focus, which former players like Kendrick Perkins cite as an MVP signal.

Perkins recently said:

“We ain’t looking at the chubby, fat Luka…We looking at skinny Luka. I saw his jawline…He is my early pick for MVP…We are about to get the best version of Luka Dončić.”

Perkins is not alone. Luka currently sits third in MVP odds (+650) behind only Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In other words, the league knows what’s coming.

READ MORE: Luka Dončić Not Among Top 15 Highest-Paid NBA Players in 2025

Prediction: Is Dončić the 2026 MVP?

Yes – if he stays healthy. Here’s why his MVP case is as strong as ever:

  • Elite stats (he’s done it before)
  • High availability (targeting 70+ games)
  • Defensive engagement (should improve)
  • Team success (Lakers were No. 3 seed last season)

In 2024-25, even in limited action, he still averaged 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists while shooting nearly 37% from three. With new additions like Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia, the Lakers are geared for depth and support — setting Dončić up for success.

And let’s not forget: Luka has finished in the top 8 in MVP voting in five of his first seven seasons. This isn’t new territory – this is unfinished business.


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